Kentucky Derby

By David R.

With Uncle Mo taking the late scratch (and costing the 21st entrant, a trip to Louisville), a field of 19 will enter in the gate on Saturday under the Twin Spires for the greatest - and most expensive - two minutes in sports.  The large field, with no clear standouts in this Spring's prep races, makes it a wide open affair and a handicapper's delight.

The chatter around the track is that Master of Hounds may be the "wiseguy" pick this year, and at a fat morning line, it will be hard not to take a shot at seeing if he hits the board.

Shackleford is also being touted pretty widely, and this has only increased as he has worked lights out over the Churchill track in the mornings.  He's trained by Dale Romans, a Kentucky boy who has owned many Churchill meets, but he's never had a Derby.  Look for him to wipe a tear from his eye as they play My Ol' Kentucky Home, and look for Jesus Castanon to have the horse rolling as they hit the stretch.

The reality is that when it comes to the Derby, like no other horse race, "Pace makes the race" and "It is all about the trip."  Many champions have found themselves caught 8 wide at the first turn, and sucking wind as they cross the finish line, a dozen lengths behind some schmuck who had only raced in allowances at Thistledown before shipping to the 'Ville.  Calvin Borel (pronounced Bo-RAIL) knows every inch of the track like the back of his hand, and his miraculous rides and guts of steel seem to always place him right down on the rail, with a chance to win when the chips are down.  Calvin's got a live mount with Twice The Appeal, and starts in the 3-hole at odds of 20-1.

This is truly a crapshoot, which makes it as fun a bet as any there is.  There are millions worth of dumb money in the parimutuel pool, and the track doesn't care who wins.  They just take out their healthy percentage and let the bettors fight over the rest like a dealer at a poker table.  Still way too early for me to have this thing handicapped well enough to make any picks, so here's one thought in the way of a bet....

A 50cent trifecta, using ALL/ALL/ALL, will cost $2907 and GUARANTEE you a winning trifecta ticket in the biggest race in the world.  But the question is will the tote board light up bright enough to make that worth your while.  In 2007, this bet would have returned $110, for a net loss of $2800.  In 2009, it paid $10,375, for a net gain of $7,468!

So, you gotta ask yourself...Do you feel lucky, punk???