Don't get me wrong I like the Saints and Drew Breeeeeeeez almost as much as I like Payton Manning, I would be happy with either team winning this game. With that being said, here are the reasons the Colts will win. Before we get to the on the field stuff let's just pretend that both teams are equal at every position.
Off the field tale of the tape
1. The Saints at the beginning of the season set their goal to be IN the Super Bowl. Since the NFC Championship game they have been celebrating like they are the world champs. I cannot imagine how hard it is to work all season long to accomplish your goal and then after you accomplish it turn around and set a new one with two weeks to build the same motivation that is required to win the Super Bowl.
2. Everyone loves the story of how the city of New Orleans has rallied around the Saints, I will admit it is a good story, BUT that was over 4 years ago how long is a team supposed carry their fans before the debt is re payed, it is added pressure that the Saints surely don't need. "Win one for the Gipper" would not have meant as much if they would have told Sayers that for four years in a row.
On the field
1. The Colts are short handed without Dwight Freeny (we all know what he can do) and Jerrad Powers who started at corner all year but did not play in the Championship game ( the reason Braylon had a walk in touch down on a backup CB) I will admit their D is looking not too hot. But they are still better than the Saints D. The Saints have relied heavily on turnovers all year, a category which they were in the top teams in the league, despite that their defense is still ranked 25th. So I think Colts still have the edge on D because with Payton not turning the ball over it will be a long day for them.
2. Both teams seem to have an equally explosive offense but this is not the case. The saints rely on long down field passes and swing passes but do not have much of a passing for a 3rd 8 type situation with most their passes being 12 yards or more I suspect the Colts ( especially if Powers plays) will keep everything in front of them, and have LB's that are athletic enough not to let the swing passes eat them up. True the Saints have a better running game but it is not better than the Jets or Ravens and the Colts shut both of them down. And don't try to tell me well the Saints shut down AP because they did not he had huge game despite his 3 fumbles. Manning on the other is a wizard behind the center. You never know where the ball is going and even if you get lucky before the snap and guess the right formation he will just see your linebacker smiling and change the play to go the other direction.
In summation
Colts 28 Saints 17
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totally agree on the turn over deal... that is one of my "ifs" that i was planning on talking about. is it A) the saints get lucky with the turn overs or B) do the saints cause these turn overs. stay tuned for my "if" report and you will see.
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